Warwick, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS61 KBOX 120742
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
342 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm through Friday with breezier and warmer conditions
today. Then the weather pattern turns unsettled and cooler this
weekend into Monday with a chance of showers at times but a
washout is not expected. Warmer weather returns through the
middle of next week with temperatures trending back above
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Warm and dry with breezy conditions today

Cold front pushes south from northern New Eng today and moves into
SNE this afternoon as shortwave energy tracks across SE Canada. A
plume of mid-high level moisture ahead of the front moves into the
region later this morning and afternoon which will bring a few
clouds but overall a mostly sunny day as the column is dry and
instability axis remains to the SW across PA. As a result expecting
dry weather through the day. The wind will be somewhat of a factor
today as decent gradient and well mixed boundary layer will support
west wind gusts to 20-30 mph and perhaps up to 35 mph over higher
terrain. Temps will be above normal, ranging from upper 70s interior
MA high terrain to low-mid 80s elsewhere. Some upper 80s possible
across CT-RI-SE MA where pre-frontal ribbon of 20-22C temps at 925
mb. Dewpoints will be falling through the 50s from N to S today so
humidity levels will be comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Low risk for a few showers near the south coast tonight

* Seasonably warm and dry Friday with less wind and coastal sea-
  breezes developing

Tonight...

As cold front drops south through SNE this evening, can`t rule
out a few light showers developing near the south coast along
the back edge of higher moisture. But it is more likely to stay
dry tonight as better chance of showers will be to the south
where moisture is greater. Drier air settles in across SNE
tonight with lows in the 50s, except lower 60s along the south
coast and urban centers.

Friday...

Frontal boundary pushes well south of New Eng with upper level
confluent flow maintaining high pres and dry air across SNE,
with sunshine mixing with some mid-high cloud cover. Cooler
post- frontal airmass in place with more seasonable temps
between 75-80, a bit cooler along the immediate coast where
sea- breezes will develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Cool and wet weather this weekend

* Warming trend next week with summer like temps possible by
  Thur/Fri

The first piece of shortwave energy embedded in the zonal flow aloft
reaches the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. This,
combined with increasing moisture and a weak low-pressure system
riding a stalled thermal boundary near the south coast, will bring
wet weather to the region Saturday morning. Upper-level forcing
weakens Saturday afternoon, which may allow for slightly drier
conditions. However, onshore flow will likely keep things cloudy and
cool with occasional sprinkles. Sunday is expected to feature more
of the same cloudy and cool conditions, with intermittent light rain
or sprinkles. When its all said and done, rain totals don`t look
particularly impressive at this time, with ensembles showing a 25th -
75th percentile range between 0.05 and 0.5 inches. The probability
of over an inch is low, at around 5%. Temperatures over the weekend
will feel more like early May than mid-June, with readings in the
mid-60s to upper 50s near the coasts.

Forecast confidence for precipitation beyond the weekend is low as
the upper flow remains zonal, and any small bits of energy could
bring more wet weather to the region.  Monday has trended cooler and
wetter as guidance keeps the trailing high pressure further north,
allowing onshore flow to continue.  High temperatures only warm
slightly, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.  A weak low-pressure
system is expected to pass south of the region on Tuesday or
Wednesday, but its placement has not shown much consistency from one
run to the next.   Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are
expected to continue warming into the upper 70s to low 80s before
some more summer-like heat is anticipated to arrive on Thursday and
Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update: High confidence.

VFR through Friday. Increasing W wind with gusts 25-30 kt
developing after 14z, then diminishing this evening and
becoming NW. Light wind Fri with sea-breezes developing along
both coasts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...

Gusty pre-frontal W-SW winds developing with gusts to 25 kt over
nearshore waters where we issued SCA for today.

Tonight and Friday...

Diminishing wind this evening becoming NW tonight, then easterly on
Friday with speeds mostly below 15 kt.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ230-232>236-251-254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...KJC/KP